CURRENT NEXT-SESSION MAP

SPY Tomorrow Bias — Confirmation, Target & Invalidation

The latest published SPY next-session bias and its mapped confirmation, target, invalidation, peer forecast, and historical outcome context.

Current Tomorrow Bias

DirectionLONG

Confidence67.6%

Sample10

Confirmation774.89

Invalidation770.71

Next Target776.97

AI Read

Bias is bullish, but similar days often moved first without fully completing the CALL route on Day 1. Historical behavior shows delayed reversal risk: Day-2 invalidation appeared 40.0% of the time when Day 1 did not finish the move. Do not chase the first move. If price is already above 774.89, wait for acceptance/retest above 774.89; next upside target is 776.97. If price fails under 774.89 and loses 770.71, bias flips to PUT continuation / bull-trap risk. Learned evidence: sample=10, confidence=67.6%, posture=MODERATE_CONFIDENCE_WAIT_FOR_ACCEPTANCE, dominant opening state=OPENED_AT_OR_ABOVE_CALL_TARGET, examples=2026-05-28, 2026-05-21, 2026-06-11. Opening-state memory: target 50.0%, invalidation 0.0%, closed-with-bias 50.0%. Directional bias math (BULLISH): favorable 3.44 vs adverse 3.37; confirmation 774.89, invalidation 770.71, next target 776.97. Calculated levels: invalidation move 767.34; UPPER EXTENSION / REVERSAL WATCH 783.79; FAVORABLE OBSERVATION LEVEL 775.29; reversal confirmation 771.51.

Peer Level-Band Forecast — Available Pre-EOD

Prior 09:30 Synthetic — 768.76

Expected test 34.9% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 6.27

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

Synthetic 09:30 — 772.92

Expected test 38.6% • Accept 82.3% • Reject 17.6% • Expected move 7.17

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

Prior 09:35 Synthetic — 767.23

Expected test 30.2% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 6.57

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

Synthetic 09:35 — 766.57

Expected test 20.4% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 6.56

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

Prior UB — 773.88

Expected test 39.5% • Accept 35.3% • Reject 64.7% • Expected move 2.87

EXPECTED REJECT / REVERSAL RISK

TOMORROW BIAS — OUTCOME & PRICE AUDIT

Confirmation774.89

Favorable Observation Level775.29

Primary Target776.97

Invalidation770.71

Target Completed30.0%

No Completion50.0%

Conditional Day-2 History

Continuation0.0%

Reversal40.0%

Still unresolved60.0%

Actual Next-Day Audit

PENDING_NEXT_DAY_EOD

The prediction has not been graded because the next trading day's EOD is not saved.

Open the complete 2026-08-10 SPY outlook and audit →