SPY NEXT MOVE
SPY DAILY OUTLOOK • 2026-08-18

SPY Outlook 2026-08-18 — Key Levels, Projected Move & Tomorrow Bias

This daily SPY outlook preserves the published opening structure, key price bands, next observed values, Tomorrow Bias, peer level-band forecast, and the subsequent outcome audit when available.

Opening SPY Structure

SPY Spot768.86
Synthetic771.72
Range Unit2.54
Market StateEXPANSION • Synthetic Dislocation Reversion

Tomorrow Bias

DirectionWAIT
Confidence23.8%
Sample10
Confirmation0.00
Invalidation0.00
Next Target0.00

SPY Key Levels

UB1771.39
UB2773.93
UB3776.47
LB1766.32
LB2763.78
LB3761.24

Accepted Structure

Prior 09:30 LBPrior 09:30 LB3Prior LBPrior LB3Today 09:30 LB3Today LB2Today LB3

Rejected Structure

Prior 09:30 LB2Prior 09:30 UBPrior LB2Prior UBToday 09:30 LBToday 09:30 LB2Today 09:30 UBToday LBToday UB

Next Values We Are Observing

Historical primary path was SHORT, but the active reversal path is LONG. Observe the LONG ladder next; these are the next live prices to monitor, not guaranteed hits.

OBSERVE NEXT 1
Today UB — 771.67
OBSERVE NEXT 2
Today UB2 — 774.21
OBSERVE NEXT 3
Today UB3 — 776.74

Peer Level-Band Forecast — Available Pre-EOD

Test rate and expected move come from completed historical peers. Upper/lower prices are calculated now and do not require today's EOD. Today's acceptance or rejection remains a separate live event.

Synthetic 09:30 — 771.30
Expected test 40.4% • Accept 84.2% • Reject 15.8% • Expected move 6.68
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior 09:30 Synthetic — 773.82
Expected test 32.6% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 6.27
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior 09:30 LB — 774.02
Expected test 41.3% • Accept 73.7% • Reject 26.3% • Expected move 5.98
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior 09:35 Synthetic — 779.38
Expected test 28.3% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 6.57
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior LB — 773.97
Expected test 39.1% • Accept 66.7% • Reject 33.3% • Expected move 5.78
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

TOMORROW BIAS — OUTCOME & PRICE AUDIT

Confirmation0.00
Favorable Observation Level0.00
Primary Target0.00
Invalidation0.00
Target Completed40.0%
No Completion40.0%

Conditional Day-2 History

Continuation25.0%
Reversal25.0%
Still unresolved50.0%

Actual Next-Day Audit

PENDING_NEXT_DAY_EOD

The prediction has not been graded because the next trading day's EOD is not saved.

General-purpose market observation.

Nothing on this page is a recommendation, solicitation, personalized advice, or an instruction to buy, sell, hold, open, close, or size a securities or options position.