SPY NEXT MOVE
SPY DAILY OUTLOOK • 2026-08-17

SPY Outlook 2026-08-17 — Key Levels, Projected Move & Tomorrow Bias

This daily SPY outlook preserves the published opening structure, key price bands, next observed values, Tomorrow Bias, peer level-band forecast, and the subsequent outcome audit when available.

Opening SPY Structure

SPY Spot775.47
Synthetic776.60
Range Unit1.47
Market StateEXPANSION • Synthetic Dislocation Reversion

Tomorrow Bias

DirectionWAIT
Confidence23.8%
Sample10
Confirmation0.00
Invalidation0.00
Next Target0.00

SPY Key Levels

UB1776.94
UB2778.41
UB3779.89
LB1773.99
LB2772.52
LB3771.04

Accepted Structure

Prior 09:30 LBPrior 09:30 LB2Prior 09:30 LB3Prior LBPrior LB2Prior LB3Today 09:30 LB2Today 09:30 LB3Today LB2Today LB3

Rejected Structure

Prior 09:30 UBPrior UBToday 09:30 LBToday 09:30 UBToday 09:30 UB2Today LBToday UB

Next Values We Are Observing

Historical primary path was SHORT, but the active reversal path is SHORT. Observe the SHORT ladder next; these are the next live prices to monitor, not guaranteed hits.

OBSERVE NEXT 1
Today LB — 773.97
OBSERVE NEXT 2
Today LB2 — 772.49
OBSERVE NEXT 3
Today LB3 — 771.02

Peer Level-Band Forecast — Available Pre-EOD

Test rate and expected move come from completed historical peers. Upper/lower prices are calculated now and do not require today's EOD. Today's acceptance or rejection remains a separate live event.

Synthetic 09:30 — 773.82
Expected test 39.1% • Accept 83.3% • Reject 16.7% • Expected move 6.89
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior 09:30 Synthetic — 779.99
Expected test 33.3% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 6.27
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior 09:35 Synthetic — 781.70
Expected test 28.9% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 6.57
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior 09:30 LB — 776.48
Expected test 40.0% • Accept 72.2% • Reject 27.8% • Expected move 6.09
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior LB — 776.22
Expected test 37.8% • Accept 64.7% • Reject 35.3% • Expected move 5.90
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

TOMORROW BIAS — OUTCOME & PRICE AUDIT

Confirmation0.00
Favorable Observation Level0.00
Primary Target0.00
Invalidation0.00
Target Completed40.0%
No Completion40.0%

Conditional Day-2 History

Continuation25.0%
Reversal25.0%
Still unresolved50.0%

Actual Next-Day Audit

PENDING_NEXT_DAY_EOD

The prediction has not been graded because the next trading day's EOD is not saved.

General-purpose market observation.

Nothing on this page is a recommendation, solicitation, personalized advice, or an instruction to buy, sell, hold, open, close, or size a securities or options position.