SPY NEXT MOVE
SPY DAILY OUTLOOK • 2026-08-14

SPY Outlook 2026-08-14 — Key Levels, Projected Move & Tomorrow Bias

This daily SPY outlook preserves the published opening structure, key price bands, next observed values, Tomorrow Bias, peer level-band forecast, and the subsequent outcome audit when available.

Opening SPY Structure

09:35 SPY778.01
Synthetic781.70
Range Unit1.79
Market StateOBSERVE • Inside Compression → Breakdown

Tomorrow Bias

DirectionWAIT
Confidence22.9%
Sample10
Confirmation0.00
Invalidation0.00
Next Target0.00

SPY Key Levels

UB1779.80
UB2781.59
UB3783.38
LB1776.22
LB2774.43
LB3772.64

Accepted Structure

Prior 09:30 LB2Prior 09:30 LB3Prior 09:30 SyntheticPrior 09:30 UBPrior 09:30 UB3Prior 09:35 SyntheticPrior LB2Prior LB3Prior UB3Today 09:30 LB3Today LB3

Rejected Structure

Prior 09:30 LBPrior 09:30 UB2Prior LBPrior UBPrior UB2Today 09:30 LBToday 09:30 LB2Today 09:30 UBToday 09:30 UB2Today LBToday LB2Today UBToday UB2

Next Values We Are Observing

Historical primary path was LONG/SHORT, but the active reversal path is LONG. Observe the LONG ladder next; these are the next live prices to monitor, not guaranteed hits.

OBSERVE NEXT 1
Today UB — 779.80
OBSERVE NEXT 2
Today UB2 — 781.59
OBSERVE NEXT 3
Today UB3 — 783.38

Peer Level-Band Forecast — Available Pre-EOD

Test rate and expected move come from completed historical peers. Upper/lower prices are calculated now and do not require today's EOD. Today's acceptance or rejection remains a separate live event.

Synthetic 09:35 — 781.70
Expected test 47.1% • Accept 81.3% • Reject 18.8% • Expected move 6.79
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Synthetic 09:30 — 779.99
Expected test 35.3% • Accept 75.0% • Reject 25.0% • Expected move 6.10
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Today UB — 779.80
Expected test 41.2% • Accept 21.4% • Reject 78.6% • Expected move 2.32
EXPECTED REJECT / REVERSAL RISK
Today 09:30 LB — 776.48
Expected test 44.1% • Accept 53.3% • Reject 46.7% • Expected move 4.46
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Today LB — 776.22
Expected test 44.1% • Accept 53.3% • Reject 46.7% • Expected move 4.33
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

TOMORROW BIAS — OUTCOME & PRICE AUDIT

Confirmation0.00
Favorable Observation Level0.00
Primary Target0.00
Invalidation0.00
Target Completed30.0%
No Completion60.0%

Conditional Day-2 History

Continuation16.7%
Reversal16.7%
Still unresolved66.7%

Actual Next-Day Audit

PENDING_NEXT_DAY_EOD

The prediction has not been graded because the next trading day's EOD is not saved.

General-purpose market observation.

Nothing on this page is a recommendation, solicitation, personalized advice, or an instruction to buy, sell, hold, open, close, or size a securities or options position.