SPY DAILY OUTLOOK • 2026-08-12

SPY Outlook 2026-08-12 — Key Levels, Projected Move & Tomorrow Bias

This daily SPY outlook preserves the published opening structure, key price bands, next observed values, Tomorrow Bias, peer level-band forecast, and the subsequent outcome audit when available.

Opening SPY Structure

09:35 SPY772.88

Synthetic772.22

Range Unit2.78

Market StatePINNING • Inside Compression → Expansion

Tomorrow Bias

DirectionWAIT

Confidence23.8%

Sample10

Confirmation0.00

Invalidation0.00

Next Target0.00

SPY Key Levels

UB1775.66

UB2778.44

UB3781.23

LB1770.10

LB2767.32

LB3764.53

Accepted Structure

Prior 09:30 LBPrior 09:30 LB2Prior 09:30 LB3Prior 09:30 SyntheticPrior 09:30 UB3Prior 09:35 SyntheticPrior LBPrior LB2Prior LB3Prior UB3Synthetic 09:30Synthetic 09:35Today 09:30 LB2Today 09:30 LB3Today LB2Today LB3

Rejected Structure

Prior 09:30 UBPrior 09:30 UB2Prior UBPrior UB2Today 09:30 LBToday 09:30 UBToday 09:30 UB2Today LBToday UBToday UB2

Next Values We Are Observing

Historical primary path was SHORT, but the active reversal path is LONG. Observe the LONG ladder next; these are the next live prices to monitor, not guaranteed hits.

OBSERVE NEXT 1

Today UB — 775.66

OBSERVE NEXT 2

Today UB2 — 778.44

OBSERVE NEXT 3

Today UB3 — 781.23

Peer Level-Band Forecast — Available Pre-EOD

Test rate and expected move come from completed historical peers. Upper/lower prices are calculated now and do not require today's EOD. Today's acceptance or rejection remains a separate live event.

Prior 09:30 Synthetic — 773.34

Expected test 30.0% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 5.01

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

Prior 09:30 UB2 — 777.17

Expected test 40.0% • Accept 25.0% • Reject 75.0% • Expected move 3.10

EXPECTED REJECT / REVERSAL RISK

Prior UB2 — 776.82

Expected test 40.0% • Accept 37.5% • Reject 62.5% • Expected move 4.75

EXPECTED REJECT / REVERSAL RISK

Prior 09:30 UB — 775.32

Expected test 45.0% • Accept 55.6% • Reject 44.4% • Expected move 3.69

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

Synthetic 09:35 — 772.22

Expected test 35.0% • Accept 71.4% • Reject 28.6% • Expected move 5.09

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

TOMORROW BIAS — OUTCOME & PRICE AUDIT

Confirmation0.00

Favorable Observation Level0.00

Primary Target0.00

Invalidation0.00

Target Completed50.0%

No Completion20.0%

Conditional Day-2 History

Continuation0.0%

Reversal50.0%

Still unresolved50.0%

Actual Next-Day Audit

PENDING_NEXT_DAY_EOD

The prediction has not been graded because the next trading day's EOD is not saved.

General-purpose market observation.

Nothing on this page is a recommendation, solicitation, personalized advice, or an instruction to buy, sell, hold, open, close, or size a securities or options position.