SPY NEXT MOVE
SPY DAILY OUTLOOK • 2026-08-11

SPY Outlook 2026-08-11 — Key Levels, Projected Move & Tomorrow Bias

This daily SPY outlook preserves the published opening structure, key price bands, next observed values, Tomorrow Bias, peer level-band forecast, and the subsequent outcome audit when available.

Opening SPY Structure

09:35 SPY773.11
Synthetic776.06
Range Unit1.86
Market StateEXPANSION • Inside Compression → Breakdown

Tomorrow Bias

DirectionSHORT
Confidence66.7%
Sample10
Confirmation771.25
Invalidation774.97
Next Target769.40

SPY Key Levels

UB1774.97
UB2776.82
UB3778.68
LB1771.25
LB2769.40
LB3767.54

Accepted Structure

Prior 09:30 LB3Prior 09:30 UBPrior 09:30 UB3Prior LB3Prior UB2Prior UB3Today 09:30 LB3Today LB

Rejected Structure

Prior 09:30 LBPrior 09:30 LB2Prior 09:30 UB2Prior LBPrior LB2Prior UBToday 09:30 LBToday 09:30 LB2Today 09:30 UBToday LB2Today UB

Next Values We Are Observing

Historical primary path was LONG, but the active reversal path is SHORT. Observe the SHORT ladder next; these are the next live prices to monitor, not guaranteed hits.

OBSERVE NEXT 1
Today LB — 771.25
OBSERVE NEXT 2
Today LB2 — 769.40
OBSERVE NEXT 3
Today LB3 — 767.54

Peer Level-Band Forecast — Available Pre-EOD

Test rate and expected move come from completed historical peers. Upper/lower prices are calculated now and do not require today's EOD. Today's acceptance or rejection remains a separate live event.

Synthetic 09:35 — 776.06
Expected test 48.5% • Accept 81.3% • Reject 18.8% • Expected move 6.79
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Synthetic 09:30 — 773.34
Expected test 33.3% • Accept 72.7% • Reject 27.3% • Expected move 6.28
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Today 09:30 LB — 771.60
Expected test 42.4% • Accept 50.0% • Reject 50.0% • Expected move 4.61
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Today LB — 771.25
Expected test 42.4% • Accept 50.0% • Reject 50.0% • Expected move 4.50
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior 09:30 LB3 — 766.32
Expected test 21.2% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 5.25
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

TOMORROW BIAS — OUTCOME & PRICE AUDIT

Confirmation771.25
Favorable Observation Level770.71
Primary Target769.40
Invalidation774.97
Target Completed50.0%
No Completion20.0%

Conditional Day-2 History

Continuation50.0%
Reversal50.0%
Still unresolved0.0%

Actual Next-Day Audit

PENDING_NEXT_DAY_EOD

The prediction has not been graded because the next trading day's EOD is not saved.

General-purpose market observation.

Nothing on this page is a recommendation, solicitation, personalized advice, or an instruction to buy, sell, hold, open, close, or size a securities or options position.