SPY NEXT MOVE
SPY DAILY OUTLOOK • 2026-08-04

SPY Outlook 2026-08-04 — Key Levels, Projected Move & Tomorrow Bias

This daily SPY outlook preserves the published opening structure, key price bands, next observed values, Tomorrow Bias, peer level-band forecast, and the subsequent outcome audit when available.

Opening SPY Structure

09:35 SPY761.96
Synthetic758.93
Range Unit3.20
Market StateDIRECTIONAL • Inside Compression → Expansion

Tomorrow Bias

DirectionLONG
Confidence79.5%
Sample10
Confirmation765.16
Invalidation758.76
Next Target768.36

SPY Key Levels

UB1765.16
UB2768.36
UB3771.56
LB1758.76
LB2755.56
LB3752.36

Accepted Structure

Prior 09:30 UB3Prior UB3Synthetic 09:30Synthetic 09:35Today LB

Rejected Structure

Prior 09:30 LBPrior 09:30 UBPrior 09:30 UB2Prior LBPrior UBPrior UB2Today 09:30 LBToday 09:30 LB2Today 09:30 UBToday 09:30 UB2Today LB2Today UBToday UB2

Next Values We Are Observing

Historical primary path was SHORT, but the active reversal path is LONG. Observe the LONG ladder next; these are the next live prices to monitor, not guaranteed hits.

OBSERVE NEXT 1
Today UB — 765.16
OBSERVE NEXT 2
Today UB2 — 768.36
OBSERVE NEXT 3
Today UB3 — 771.56

Peer Level-Band Forecast — Available Pre-EOD

Test rate and expected move come from completed historical peers. Upper/lower prices are calculated now and do not require today's EOD. Today's acceptance or rejection remains a separate live event.

Prior 09:30 UB2 — 759.49
Expected test 44.4% • Accept 25.0% • Reject 75.0% • Expected move 3.10
EXPECTED REJECT / REVERSAL RISK
Prior 09:30 Synthetic — 760.23
Expected test 27.8% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 5.42
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Synthetic 09:35 — 758.93
Expected test 38.9% • Accept 71.4% • Reject 28.6% • Expected move 5.09
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior 09:30 UB — 755.13
Expected test 44.4% • Accept 62.5% • Reject 37.5% • Expected move 3.99
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior 09:35 Synthetic — 741.66
Expected test 33.3% • Accept 83.3% • Reject 16.7% • Expected move 5.13
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

TOMORROW BIAS — OUTCOME & PRICE AUDIT

Confirmation765.16
Favorable Observation Level766.80
Primary Target768.36
Invalidation758.76
Target Completed50.0%
No Completion40.0%

Conditional Day-2 History

Continuation25.0%
Reversal50.0%
Still unresolved25.0%

Actual Next-Day Audit

DAY_1_UNFINISHED

Day 1 touched neither target nor invalidation, so the prediction remains unfinished rather than proven correct or wrong.

General-purpose market observation.

Nothing on this page is a recommendation, solicitation, personalized advice, or an instruction to buy, sell, hold, open, close, or size a securities or options position.