SPY DAILY OUTLOOK • 2026-07-28

SPY Outlook 2026-07-28 — Key Levels, Projected Move & Tomorrow Bias

This daily SPY outlook preserves the published opening structure, key price bands, next observed values, Tomorrow Bias, peer level-band forecast, and the subsequent outcome audit when available.

Opening SPY Structure

09:35 SPY737.79

Synthetic738.51

Range Unit3.32

Market StatePINNING • Gap Fill Reversal

Tomorrow Bias

DirectionLONG

Confidence57.1%

Sample10

Confirmation741.11

Invalidation734.47

Next Target744.43

SPY Key Levels

UB1741.11

UB2744.43

UB3747.75

LB1734.47

LB2731.15

LB3727.83

Accepted Structure

Prior 09:30 LB3Prior LB3Prior UBSynthetic 09:35Today 09:30 LB3Today LB3

Rejected Structure

Prior 09:30 LBPrior 09:30 LB2Prior 09:30 UBPrior 09:30 UB2Prior LBPrior LB2Prior UB2Synthetic 09:30Today 09:30 LBToday 09:30 LB2Today 09:30 UBToday LBToday LB2Today UB

Next Values We Are Observing

Historical primary path was SHORT, but the active reversal path is SHORT. Observe the SHORT ladder next; these are the next live prices to monitor, not guaranteed hits.

OBSERVE NEXT 1

Today LB — 734.47

OBSERVE NEXT 2

Today LB2 — 731.15

OBSERVE NEXT 3

Today LB3 — 727.83

Peer Level-Band Forecast — Available Pre-EOD

Test rate and expected move come from completed historical peers. Upper/lower prices are calculated now and do not require today's EOD. Today's acceptance or rejection remains a separate live event.

Synthetic 09:35 — 738.51

Expected test 66.7% • Accept 83.3% • Reject 16.7% • Expected move 5.90

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

Prior 09:30 UB — 748.83

Expected test 66.7% • Accept 66.7% • Reject 33.3% • Expected move 3.91

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

Prior UB — 749.13

Expected test 66.7% • Accept 66.7% • Reject 33.3% • Expected move 3.82

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

Synthetic 09:30 — 746.94

Expected test 44.4% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 6.07

EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION

Prior 09:30 UB2 — 753.00

Expected test 44.4% • Accept 0.0% • Reject 100.0% • Expected move 1.39

EXPECTED REJECT / REVERSAL RISK

TOMORROW BIAS — OUTCOME & PRICE AUDIT

Confirmation741.11

Favorable Observation Level742.20

Primary Target744.43

Invalidation734.47

Target Completed30.0%

No Completion40.0%

Conditional Day-2 History

Continuation50.0%

Reversal25.0%

Still unresolved25.0%

Actual Next-Day Audit

PREDICTION_INVALIDATED

The primary Tomorrow Bias route failed at its mapped invalidation.

General-purpose market observation.

Nothing on this page is a recommendation, solicitation, personalized advice, or an instruction to buy, sell, hold, open, close, or size a securities or options position.