SPY DAILY OUTLOOK • 2026-05-04
SPY Outlook 2026-05-04 — Key Levels, Projected Move & Tomorrow Bias
This daily SPY outlook preserves the published opening structure, key price bands, next observed values, Tomorrow Bias, peer level-band forecast, and the subsequent outcome audit when available.
Opening SPY Structure
09:35 SPY719.84
Synthetic720.35
Range Unit2.16
Market StatePINNING • Inside Compression → Breakdown
Tomorrow Bias
DirectionSHORT
Confidence77.2%
Sample10
Confirmation717.68
Invalidation722.00
Next Target715.52
SPY Key Levels
UB1722.00
UB2724.16
UB3726.32
LB1717.68
LB2715.52
LB3713.36
Accepted Structure
No accepted labels published.
Rejected Structure
No rejected labels published.
Next Values We Are Observing
No active next-value ladder was published for this session.
Peer Level-Band Forecast — Available Pre-EOD
Test rate and expected move come from completed historical peers. Upper/lower prices are calculated now and do not require today's EOD. Today's acceptance or rejection remains a separate live event.
Synthetic 09:35 — 720.35
Expected test 50.0% • Accept 80.0% • Reject 20.0% • Expected move 6.64
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior 09:35 Synthetic — 728.00
Expected test 25.0% • Accept 80.0% • Reject 20.0% • Expected move 6.65
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Today UB — 722.00
Expected test 55.0% • Accept 27.3% • Reject 72.7% • Expected move 2.39
EXPECTED REJECT / REVERSAL RISK
Prior 09:30 LB3 — 712.16
Expected test 15.0% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 4.53
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
Prior LB3 — 712.13
Expected test 15.0% • Accept 100.0% • Reject 0.0% • Expected move 4.38
EXPECTED ACCEPT / CONTINUATION
TOMORROW BIAS — OUTCOME & PRICE AUDIT
Confirmation717.68
Favorable Observation Level716.92
Primary Target715.52
Invalidation722.00
Target Completed60.0%
No Completion20.0%
Conditional Day-2 History
Continuation50.0%
Reversal50.0%
Still unresolved0.0%
Actual Next-Day Audit
PREDICTION_INVALIDATED
The primary Tomorrow Bias route failed at its mapped invalidation.
General-purpose market observation.
Nothing on this page is a recommendation, solicitation, personalized advice, or an instruction to buy, sell, hold, open, close, or size a securities or options position.